Staggered lockup schedule from the S-1 filing. Musk holds ~42% equity with a personal 366-day lockup — the largest single overhang in IPO history.
Core metrics to track each quarter. Starlink is the only profit engine right now.
Fundamentals last verified: · Data sourced from SpaceX S-1 and Goldman Sachs research · Not financial advice.
Conditions that should trigger deployment of remaining tranches — or cause you to pause.
Musk holds 85% of voting power and ~42% of equity with a 366-day lockup. His political visibility, Tesla distraction, and personal decision-making are unmodelable risks. Watch for any stock sale announcements, Tesla merger discussions, or major personal distraction events — each is a potential 10–20% single-day move.
Primary SEC filings, upcoming reporting dates, and key research references.
Not financial advice. Lockup dates estimated from S-1 filing (June 2026). Live price data via Finnhub (free tier) with Yahoo Finance fallback. Fundamentals sourced from SpaceX S-1 and Goldman Sachs research — updated manually each quarter. RUD and Ludicrous cases represent tail-risk scenarios outside standard modelling ranges.